Por qué tomamos malas decisiones
Explora los atajos mentales que moldean las decisiones cotidianas, desde identificar una buena oferta hasta juzgar a otras personas.
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Questions with solutions-
1. Elige la respuesta correcta.
What should Sam do to avoid this pattern?
Sam believes working from home reduces productivity. He reads reports supporting that view but skips reports that disagree.
- Collect more reports that support his view.
- Examine reliable reports that challenge his view.
- Ask only colleagues who already agree with him.
- Ignore research and trust his first impression.
Useful evidence may be in the reports he avoids.
Show solution
- Examine reliable reports that challenge his view.
Confirmation bias means favoring evidence that supports an existing belief. Looking seriously at opposing evidence can reveal what that belief misses.
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2. Completa el espacio en blanco.
Jo's movie ticket cannot be refunded. She is bored but stays because she paid for it. A better decision would focus on ___.
- how much she paid before the movie
- how long she waited to buy the ticket
- how far she traveled to reach the theater
- how she wants to spend the rest of the evening
El dinero del boleto ya está perdido, tanto si ella se queda como si se va.
Show solution
Jo's movie ticket cannot be refunded. She is bored but stays because she paid for it. A better decision would focus on how she wants to spend the rest of the evening.
La falacia del costo hundido consiste en dejar que los costos que no puedes recuperar guíen una nueva decisión. Irse no desperdiciaría más dinero del boleto.
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3. Elige la respuesta correcta.
What is shaping Alex's judgment of value?
A store lists a jacket at $180, then marks it down to $90. Alex immediately calls it a bargain based on those two prices alone.
- He uses the original price as a reference point.
- He compares typical prices across several stores.
- He considers how often he will wear the jacket.
- He calculates how much the jacket costs to make.
The first number influences how the second number feels.
Show solution
- He uses the original price as a reference point.
Anchoring happens when an initial number pulls later judgments toward it. A large discount does not establish whether the final price is a good value.
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4. Elige la respuesta correcta.
Which conclusion goes beyond the evidence?
Nina is impressed by a job candidate's confident presentation. Without checking his experience, she assumes he will also be excellent at managing budgets.
- The candidate spoke with confidence.
- Nina found the presentation impressive.
- The candidate will be excellent at managing budgets.
- The presentation influenced Nina's opinion.
Evidence of one skill does not automatically demonstrate another.
Show solution
- The candidate will be excellent at managing budgets.
The halo effect lets one positive quality raise our opinion of unrelated qualities. Presentation skills and financial skills need separate evidence.
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5. Elige la respuesta correcta.
¿Qué ilustra la reacción de Maya?
During a game, Maya wins $20 and then loses $20. The loss bothers her much more than the win pleased her.
- Her feelings depend only on her final balance.
- She treats winning and losing as emotionally equal.
- She must lose more than she wins to feel upset.
- An equal loss and gain can have different emotional weight.
Las cantidades son iguales, pero sus reacciones no.
Show solution
- An equal loss and gain can have different emotional weight.
La aversión a las pérdidas describe casos en los que las pérdidas tienen un impacto emocional más fuerte que las ganancias de igual magnitud. Puede hacer que renunciar a algo resulte especialmente difícil.
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6. Elige la respuesta correcta.
What information would best test her conclusion?
After seeing several dramatic reports about bus accidents, Leah concludes that bus travel has become more dangerous. She has not checked accident rates.
- How often the same accident stories appear in the news.
- Accident rates over time, accounting for the number of trips.
- Which accident videos have been shared most widely.
- Which accident stories people remember most clearly.
The amount of coverage and the level of danger are different things.
Show solution
- Accident rates over time, accounting for the number of trips.
Availability bias makes easily recalled events seem more common. Dramatic coverage can change our impression even when the underlying risk has not increased.
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7. Elige la respuesta correcta.
¿Qué explica mejor la diferencia en las decisiones de los clientes?
The same repair service is described in two ways: "We repair 90% of devices" and "We cannot repair 10% of devices." All other details are identical. More customers select it after seeing the first description.
- The first description promises a higher repair rate.
- The second description includes an extra repair charge.
- The first description presents the same outcome more positively.
- The second description refers to a different set of devices.
Ambas descripciones tienen en cuenta todos los dispositivos.
Show solution
- The first description presents the same outcome more positively.
El efecto de encuadre ocurre cuando información equivalente lleva a tomar decisiones diferentes debido a la forma en que se presenta. Enfatizar el éxito puede generar una sensación distinta a la de enfatizar el fracaso.
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8. Completa el espacio en blanco.
Kai's reports usually take three days. He promises to finish a similar report in one day because his plan assumes no delays. A more realistic estimate would give greater weight to ___.
- the time similar reports actually took
- the time needed if everything goes perfectly
- the speed he hopes to reach
- the deadline he would prefer
Su trabajo anterior incluye retrasos que su plan ideal no contempla.
Show solution
Kai's reports usually take three days. He promises to finish a similar report in one day because his plan assumes no delays. A more realistic estimate would give greater weight to the time similar reports actually took.
La falacia de la planificación consiste en subestimar el tiempo que requiere una tarea. Los resultados de tareas similares realizadas en el pasado suelen ofrecer un punto de partida más sólido que un plan ideal.
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9. Elige la respuesta correcta.
¿Qué permitiría comprobar mejor si el recuerdo de Daniel es exacto?
Before a store closes, Daniel says it has an equal chance of surviving or failing. After it closes, he says, "I knew it would fail all along."
- The store's final sales figures.
- A list of reasons the closure now seems obvious.
- News reports published after the store closed.
- A note recording his prediction before the closure.
Distingue entre lo que él creía antes del resultado y lo que sabe después.
Show solution
- A note recording his prediction before the closure.
El sesgo retrospectivo hace que un resultado conocido parezca más predecible de lo que era. Registrar las predicciones de antemano puede proteger contra este cambio en la memoria.
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10. Elige la respuesta correcta.
Which missing group is most important for testing this claim?
A business course interviews successful founders who dropped out of college. It presents their stories as evidence that dropping out of college is a reliable route to business success.
- Successful founders already featured in the course.
- People who dropped out of college, started businesses, and did not succeed.
- College graduates who never tried to start a business.
- Students who hope to start a business in the future.
The course shows people whose businesses survived, but not those whose businesses failed.
Show solution
- People who dropped out of college, started businesses, and did not succeed.
Survivorship bias leaves unsuccessful cases out of the picture. Hearing only success stories can make a risky path seem much more reliable than it is.
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11. Elige la respuesta correcta.
¿Qué conclusión está mejor respaldada por la situación en su conjunto?
At a cafe, Eli sees a server make several mistakes and immediately decides she is careless. He has not noticed that two coworkers are absent and she is covering their tables.
- Her personal attitude is the only useful explanation.
- The extra workload rules out any personal responsibility.
- The extra workload may be contributing to her mistakes.
- Her performance today proves she is unsuitable for the job.
Considera tanto a la persona como las condiciones que la rodean.
Show solution
- The extra workload may be contributing to her mistakes.
El error fundamental de atribución consiste en dar más importancia a los rasgos personales y pasar por alto las circunstancias. El contexto puede contribuir al comportamiento sin explicarlo todo.
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12. Elige la respuesta correcta.
Which role is she more likely to have, based only on these facts?
At a company with only sales and design roles, sales staff greatly outnumber designers. The same share of each group enjoys drawing. A randomly selected employee says she enjoys drawing.
- Sales, because drawing is equally common in both groups and sales has more staff.
- Design, because drawing sounds more closely related to design.
- Neither is more likely, because the same share of each group enjoys drawing.
- Neither is more likely, because random selection gives both job types an equal chance.
An equal share of a larger group still contains more people.
Show solution
- Sales, because drawing is equally common in both groups and sales has more staff.
Base rate neglect means overlooking how common each category is. Here, enjoying drawing does not distinguish the groups, so she is still more likely to work in sales, the larger group.