Miért hozunk rossz döntéseket?

by Vocafy Ellenőrzött

Angol (US) B2 12 kérdés Science

Fedezd fel a mindennapi döntéseket alakító mentális rövidítéseket, a jó vétel felismerésétől mások megítéléséig.

1. 1. Válaszd ki a helyes választ.

   What should Sam do to avoid this pattern?

   Sam believes working from home reduces productivity. He reads reports supporting that view but skips reports that disagree.

   • Collect more reports that support his view.
   • Examine reliable reports that challenge his view.
   • Ask only colleagues who already agree with him.
   • Ignore research and trust his first impression.

   Useful evidence may be in the reports he avoids.

   Show solution

   • Examine reliable reports that challenge his view.

   Confirmation bias means favoring evidence that supports an existing belief. Looking seriously at opposing evidence can reveal what that belief misses.

2. 2. Töltsd ki az üres helyet.

   Jo's movie ticket cannot be refunded. She is bored but stays because she paid for it. A better decision would focus on ___.

   • how much she paid before the movie
   • how long she waited to buy the ticket
   • how far she traveled to reach the theater
   • how she wants to spend the rest of the evening

   A jegyre költött pénz már odavan, akár marad, akár elmegy.

   Show solution

   Jo's movie ticket cannot be refunded. She is bored but stays because she paid for it. A better decision would focus on how she wants to spend the rest of the evening.

   Az elsüllyedt költségek csapdája azt jelenti, hogy egy új döntést olyan költségekre alapozunk, amelyeket már nem tudunk visszaszerezni. A távozással nem veszne kárba további, jegyre költött pénz.

3. 3. Válaszd ki a helyes választ.

   What is shaping Alex's judgment of value?

   A store lists a jacket at $180, then marks it down to $90. Alex immediately calls it a bargain based on those two prices alone.

   • He uses the original price as a reference point.
   • He compares typical prices across several stores.
   • He considers how often he will wear the jacket.
   • He calculates how much the jacket costs to make.

   The first number influences how the second number feels.

   Show solution

   • He uses the original price as a reference point.

   Anchoring happens when an initial number pulls later judgments toward it. A large discount does not establish whether the final price is a good value.

4. 4. Válaszd ki a helyes választ.

   Which conclusion goes beyond the evidence?

   Nina is impressed by a job candidate's confident presentation. Without checking his experience, she assumes he will also be excellent at managing budgets.

   • The candidate spoke with confidence.
   • Nina found the presentation impressive.
   • The candidate will be excellent at managing budgets.
   • The presentation influenced Nina's opinion.

   Evidence of one skill does not automatically demonstrate another.

   Show solution

   • The candidate will be excellent at managing budgets.

   The halo effect lets one positive quality raise our opinion of unrelated qualities. Presentation skills and financial skills need separate evidence.

5. 5. Válaszd ki a helyes választ.

   Mit szemléltet Maya reakciója?

   During a game, Maya wins $20 and then loses $20. The loss bothers her much more than the win pleased her.

   • Her feelings depend only on her final balance.
   • She treats winning and losing as emotionally equal.
   • She must lose more than she wins to feel upset.
   • An equal loss and gain can have different emotional weight.

   Az összegek azonosak, a reakciói viszont eltérnek.

   Show solution

   • An equal loss and gain can have different emotional weight.

   A veszteségkerülés olyan eseteket ír le, amikor a veszteségeknek erősebb érzelmi hatásuk van, mint az ugyanakkora nyereségeknek. Emiatt különösen nehéz lehet lemondani valamiről.

6. 6. Válaszd ki a helyes választ.

   What information would best test her conclusion?

   After seeing several dramatic reports about bus accidents, Leah concludes that bus travel has become more dangerous. She has not checked accident rates.

   • How often the same accident stories appear in the news.
   • Accident rates over time, accounting for the number of trips.
   • Which accident videos have been shared most widely.
   • Which accident stories people remember most clearly.

   The amount of coverage and the level of danger are different things.

   Show solution

   • Accident rates over time, accounting for the number of trips.

   Availability bias makes easily recalled events seem more common. Dramatic coverage can change our impression even when the underlying risk has not increased.

7. 7. Válaszd ki a helyes választ.

   Mi magyarázza legjobban a vásárlók döntései közötti különbséget?

   The same repair service is described in two ways: "We repair 90% of devices" and "We cannot repair 10% of devices." All other details are identical. More customers select it after seeing the first description.

   • The first description promises a higher repair rate.
   • The second description includes an extra repair charge.
   • The first description presents the same outcome more positively.
   • The second description refers to a different set of devices.

   Mindkét leírás az összes eszközre kiterjed.

   Show solution

   • The first description presents the same outcome more positively.

   A keretezési hatás akkor jelentkezik, amikor azonos tartalmú információk eltérő döntésekhez vezetnek a bemutatásuk módja miatt. A siker hangsúlyozása más érzést kelthet, mint a kudarc hangsúlyozása.

8. 8. Töltsd ki az üres helyet.

   Kai's reports usually take three days. He promises to finish a similar report in one day because his plan assumes no delays. A more realistic estimate would give greater weight to ___.

   • the time similar reports actually took
   • the time needed if everything goes perfectly
   • the speed he hopes to reach
   • the deadline he would prefer

   Korábbi munkái során előfordultak késések, amelyeket az ideális terve nem vesz figyelembe.

   Show solution

   Kai's reports usually take three days. He promises to finish a similar report in one day because his plan assumes no delays. A more realistic estimate would give greater weight to the time similar reports actually took.

   A tervezési tévedés lényege, hogy alábecsüljük egy feladat időigényét. A hasonló korábbi feladatok eredményei gyakran megbízhatóbb kiindulópontot nyújtanak, mint egy ideális terv.

9. 9. Válaszd ki a helyes választ.

   Mi mutatná meg a legjobban, hogy Daniel emlékei pontosak-e?

   Before a store closes, Daniel says it has an equal chance of surviving or failing. After it closes, he says, "I knew it would fail all along."

   • The store's final sales figures.
   • A list of reasons the closure now seems obvious.
   • News reports published after the store closed.
   • A note recording his prediction before the closure.

   Különítsd el azt, amit az eredmény előtt gondolt, attól, amit utána tud.

   Show solution

   • A note recording his prediction before the closure.

   Az utólagos bölcsesség torzítása miatt az ismert kimenetel előre láthatóbbnak tűnik, mint amilyen valójában volt. Az előrejelzések előzetes rögzítése védelmet nyújthat az emlékezet ilyen változása ellen.

10. 10. Válaszd ki a helyes választ.

    Which missing group is most important for testing this claim?

    A business course interviews successful founders who dropped out of college. It presents their stories as evidence that dropping out of college is a reliable route to business success.

    • Successful founders already featured in the course.
    • People who dropped out of college, started businesses, and did not succeed.
    • College graduates who never tried to start a business.
    • Students who hope to start a business in the future.

    The course shows people whose businesses survived, but not those whose businesses failed.

    Show solution

    • People who dropped out of college, started businesses, and did not succeed.

    Survivorship bias leaves unsuccessful cases out of the picture. Hearing only success stories can make a risky path seem much more reliable than it is.

11. 11. Válaszd ki a helyes választ.

    Melyik következtetést támasztja alá leginkább a helyzet egésze?

    At a cafe, Eli sees a server make several mistakes and immediately decides she is careless. He has not noticed that two coworkers are absent and she is covering their tables.

    • Her personal attitude is the only useful explanation.
    • The extra workload rules out any personal responsibility.
    • The extra workload may be contributing to her mistakes.
    • Her performance today proves she is unsuitable for the job.

    Vedd figyelembe a személyt és az őt körülvevő körülményeket is.

    Show solution

    • The extra workload may be contributing to her mistakes.

    Az alapvető attribúciós hiba azt jelenti, hogy a személyes jellemzőket hangsúlyozzuk, miközben figyelmen kívül hagyjuk a körülményeket. A kontextus szerepet játszhat a viselkedésben anélkül, hogy mindent megmagyarázna.

12. 12. Válaszd ki a helyes választ.

    Which role is she more likely to have, based only on these facts?

    At a company with only sales and design roles, sales staff greatly outnumber designers. The same share of each group enjoys drawing. A randomly selected employee says she enjoys drawing.

    • Sales, because drawing is equally common in both groups and sales has more staff.
    • Design, because drawing sounds more closely related to design.
    • Neither is more likely, because the same share of each group enjoys drawing.
    • Neither is more likely, because random selection gives both job types an equal chance.

    An equal share of a larger group still contains more people.

    Show solution

    • Sales, because drawing is equally common in both groups and sales has more staff.

    Base rate neglect means overlooking how common each category is. Here, enjoying drawing does not distinguish the groups, so she is still more likely to work in sales, the larger group.